There will be another pandemic, similar to or even worse than COVID. The only question is when it will break out.
Throughout the world there are numerous viral diseases capable of becoming global pandemics. Some are more contagious than COVID. Some are more lethal. Some possess characteristics that could make the disruption caused by COVID seem relatively modest by comparison.
The danger is already present.
For decades national security experts have focused on military threats, nuclear weapons, and terrorism. Yet a highly contagious viral pathogen can travel farther, spread faster, and affect more people than many conventional weapons systems.
A nuclear weapon must be manufactured, transported, and delivered to a target. A contagious viral pathogen requires only an infected human being boarding an airplane.
Shortly after the attacks of September 11, 2001, a number of experts briefed senior officials in Washington about unconventional threats to national security. Among the most sobering presentations was a discussion of how easily a pandemic could emerge and how poorly prepared most nations, including the United States, were to respond.
COVID proved those warnings were correct.
The wealthiest and most technologically advanced nations in the world found themselves overwhelmed. Hospitals lacked sufficient beds. Morgues overflowed. First responders and medical personnel became ill precisely when they were needed most. Governments struggled to coordinate responses. International travel accelerated the spread of the disease long before effective countermeasures could be organized.
Yet the most disturbing lesson from COVID is that we appear to have learned very little from it.
There is still no comprehensive national strategy to prepare for the next pandemic. There is no sustained public discussion about expanding surge medical capacity, protecting healthcare workers, maintaining emergency stockpiles, or coordinating rapid responses across state and national boundaries. Instead of rational planning, we have political theater, partisan argument, and institutional complacency.
Nor should pandemic preparedness depend entirely upon commercial decisions. Pharmaceutical companies play an important role in developing vaccines, medicines, and diagnostic tools, but their primary responsibility is to their shareholders, not to the public health needs of the American people. A nation that depends exclusively upon market forces to protect public health during a pandemic is a nation that has mistaken a business model for a national security strategy.
The Marketplace of Ideas Is a Flea Market
Competing ideas are supposed to be tested, examined, and challenged until better ideas emerge, but reality works differently. Facts compete with rumors. Expertise competes with ideology. Evidence competes with slogans. The loudest voices frequently receive more attention than the most informed voices. Too often the marketplace of ideas resembles a flea market where buyers must beware.
The COVID pandemic demonstrated this problem in dramatic fashion. At the precise moment when accurate information was most important, misinformation spread almost as rapidly as the virus itself. The result was confusion, distrust, and delay. Many more people died than should have.
National Security Needs Pandemic Preparedness
The next pandemic may be more contagious than COVID. It may be more lethal. It may spread more rapidly through a world connected by modern transportation networks.
We do not know when it will arrive. But we can be sure it will arrive.
Preparation for the next pandemic is not simply a public-health issue. It is a national security issue. It deserves the same level of planning, organization, and seriousness that governments devote to military defense, disaster preparedness, and critical infrastructure protection.
The question is whether we will prepare before the next pandemic begins, or whether we will once again attempt to organize our response while the crisis is already underway.
Viral pathogens do not care about political affiliations, ideological preferences, or opinions on social media. They respond only to the immutable laws of nature.
COVID gave us a warning. It exposed weaknesses in our healthcare systems, our emergency planning, our political institutions, and our ability to distinguish evidence from ideology.
Instead of treating that warning as a call to prepare, we have largely returned to complacency, political posturing, and partisan argument. The next pandemic may not give us the time or margin for error that COVID provided.
If a more contagious and more lethal viral pathogen emerges, the consequences could extend far beyond hospitals and public health agencies. Supply chains could fail. Essential services could collapse. Governments could find themselves reacting to events they cannot control.
Great nations are not always destroyed by armies and weapons. Sometimes they are undone by their inability to recognize danger, organize effectively, and act before a predictable disaster arrives.
The next pandemic is coming. The immutable laws of nature guarantee that.
History will judge us by what we did after we were warned.
The Next Pandemic Is Not a Matter of If
June 20, 2026 | Public Health
There will be another pandemic, similar to or even worse than COVID. The only question is when it will break out.
Throughout the world there are numerous viral diseases capable of becoming global pandemics. Some are more contagious than COVID. Some are more lethal. Some possess characteristics that could make the disruption caused by COVID seem relatively modest by comparison.
The danger is already present.
For decades national security experts have focused on military threats, nuclear weapons, and terrorism. Yet a highly contagious viral pathogen can travel farther, spread faster, and affect more people than many conventional weapons systems.
A nuclear weapon must be manufactured, transported, and delivered to a target. A contagious viral pathogen requires only an infected human being boarding an airplane.
Shortly after the attacks of September 11, 2001, a number of experts briefed senior officials in Washington about unconventional threats to national security. Among the most sobering presentations was a discussion of how easily a pandemic could emerge and how poorly prepared most nations, including the United States, were to respond.
COVID proved those warnings were correct.
The wealthiest and most technologically advanced nations in the world found themselves overwhelmed. Hospitals lacked sufficient beds. Morgues overflowed. First responders and medical personnel became ill precisely when they were needed most. Governments struggled to coordinate responses. International travel accelerated the spread of the disease long before effective countermeasures could be organized.
Yet the most disturbing lesson from COVID is that we appear to have learned very little from it.
There is still no comprehensive national strategy to prepare for the next pandemic. There is no sustained public discussion about expanding surge medical capacity, protecting healthcare workers, maintaining emergency stockpiles, or coordinating rapid responses across state and national boundaries. Instead of rational planning, we have political theater, partisan argument, and institutional complacency.
Nor should pandemic preparedness depend entirely upon commercial decisions. Pharmaceutical companies play an important role in developing vaccines, medicines, and diagnostic tools, but their primary responsibility is to their shareholders, not to the public health needs of the American people. A nation that depends exclusively upon market forces to protect public health during a pandemic is a nation that has mistaken a business model for a national security strategy.
The Marketplace of Ideas Is a Flea Market
Competing ideas are supposed to be tested, examined, and challenged until better ideas emerge, but reality works differently. Facts compete with rumors. Expertise competes with ideology. Evidence competes with slogans. The loudest voices frequently receive more attention than the most informed voices. Too often the marketplace of ideas resembles a flea market where buyers must beware.
The COVID pandemic demonstrated this problem in dramatic fashion. At the precise moment when accurate information was most important, misinformation spread almost as rapidly as the virus itself. The result was confusion, distrust, and delay. Many more people died than should have.
National Security Needs Pandemic Preparedness
The next pandemic may be more contagious than COVID. It may be more lethal. It may spread more rapidly through a world connected by modern transportation networks.
We do not know when it will arrive. But we can be sure it will arrive.
Preparation for the next pandemic is not simply a public-health issue. It is a national security issue. It deserves the same level of planning, organization, and seriousness that governments devote to military defense, disaster preparedness, and critical infrastructure protection.
The question is whether we will prepare before the next pandemic begins, or whether we will once again attempt to organize our response while the crisis is already underway.
Viral pathogens do not care about political affiliations, ideological preferences, or opinions on social media. They respond only to the immutable laws of nature.
COVID gave us a warning. It exposed weaknesses in our healthcare systems, our emergency planning, our political institutions, and our ability to distinguish evidence from ideology.
Instead of treating that warning as a call to prepare, we have largely returned to complacency, political posturing, and partisan argument. The next pandemic may not give us the time or margin for error that COVID provided.
If a more contagious and more lethal viral pathogen emerges, the consequences could extend far beyond hospitals and public health agencies. Supply chains could fail. Essential services could collapse. Governments could find themselves reacting to events they cannot control.
Great nations are not always destroyed by armies and weapons. Sometimes they are undone by their inability to recognize danger, organize effectively, and act before a predictable disaster arrives.
The next pandemic is coming. The immutable laws of nature guarantee that.
History will judge us by what we did after we were warned.